WEEKLY GRAIN NEWSLETTER
By Jeremey Frost
The USDA report this week has the potential to do one of the following.
Take away potential for new all time highs
Pause the path to new all time highs
Accelerate the path to new all time highs.
We will be watching this week’s USDA report to see if there are any fundamental changes.
What are the big things we need to watch for?
Demand - will USDA decrease demand with our slow exports in corn? What about feed demand?
Final Yields - Any shocker in final yields going to come up? Could the USDA print a small number for corn or beans? Will they find or lose 200-300 million bushels or more of corn?
South American Production - Will it matter what the USDA prints here? If it is too big the market will ignore it. But if the USDA is aggressive in cutting production estimates will it cause the funds to aggressively buy grains and oils seeds again?
Other USDA curveballs? Production or demand side of things for any major buyer or exporter?
Two major things that I watch on USDA reports are what are the numbers versus expectations or pre-report estimates. But also what is the trend. Herein Lies some risk for corn, will the USDA drop exports again, sticking with our slow export trend? We don’t want to see month after month of usage dropping..
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Included in this Week’s Edition
What to expect in the USDA report
Soymeal made new contract highs.. where is the next stop?
Corn has some advisors bearish..
How bad is Argentina drought?
China & Demand
2023 USA Weather & Risk
If history repeats itself, does weather too?
Corn yield and drought history
Sunflower Oil
Technical analysis for grains
Is USDA overestimating SA?
Reasons the bean market could go higher or lower
Predictions for 2023 from Zero Hedge