AUDIO COMMENTARY

New lows in corn & beans
Weather isn’t an issue
$3.80 corn next? (Chart below)*
Lots of talk about $3.40 corn
Big lack of bullish news
Do we actually have a record crop?
Market thinks we have perfect monster crop
If we are 185 bu crop this thing could get scary low. Market has 182-183 penciled in
Market is not expecting 177-180
USDA report coming
55 beans will spark 1 billion bu carryout talk
Protecting the downside
Should you lock in basis?
Who should vs should not do a basis contact
Getting comfortable
Live cattle sell signal? (Chart below)*
ALL CHARTS BELOW*

Listen to today’s audio below

CHARTS

Dec Corn 🌽

We are holding up well under $4.00, meaning we haven’t completely fallen apart yet which still gives us the chance that this could be a bear trap.

If we do not reverse and close above $4.00 tomorrow, it becomes likely we go down and test $3.80 which is our implied downside target I have been mentioning for weeks.

We will likely know tomorrow if this is a bear trap or we are going lower.

Either way, to say the bottom is completely in I still need a close above $4.26 preferably. Until we do so, the risk is lower.

Nov Beans 🌱

Very hard to say where the bottom is. Will be determined by China likely.

However, until we get confirmation that the bottom is in on the charts, the downside risk & path of least resistance remains lower.

$10.00 will be a good psychological support level.

We could bounce anywhere, but I wouldn’t completely rule out seeing $9.60, as that is our resistance level from the Trade War. (Look at 2nd chart).

Weekly Continuous Beans 🌱

Here is why we can’t rule out $9.60. That purple line is the trade war resistance. Of course we could be bounce before. But that is our downside risk.

Sep Chicago Wheat 🌾

We remain stuck in a 30 cent range, continuing to hold that $5.24 support nicely.

If we can claw above $5.56 the chart would look bullish.

But I’d like to see $5.67 to call a bottom here.

Sep KC Wheat 🌾

Same story as Chicago. Holding the recent range.

A close above $5.76 would look great and make me feel like we are going higher. $6.00 is the key level.

Continuous Live Cattle 🐮

Look at this channel.

We have bounced here several times.

We could do it again.. but if we do not and get a break below into perhaps 182.500 then I would look at this chart as no longer in an uptrend. Meaning I would advise a sell signal for some.

Sep Feeder Cattle 🐮

This chart looks like it could see more downside, as we break below that pendant.

A reason you might want to have puts for protection.

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7/31/24

MARKET EXPECTS A PERFECT CROP?

AUDIO COMMENTARY

CHARTS

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GRAINS RALLY, YIELD ESTIMATES, CHINA STARTS TO BUY

CORN BREAKS $4.00, FAVORABLE WEATHER & CHARTS

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