2 DAYS UNTIL USDA. BE PREPARED

AUDIO COMMENTARY

  • US dollar strength added some pressure

  • Getting hedges in place for cattle

  • Cattle thoughts & chart below*

  • Risk is that carryout doesn’t fall much as it’s priced in

  • Biggest corn risk going into the report

  • Options dirt cheap if you have grain in the bin

  • Cheap way to protect the corn rally & not sell too early if the rally decides to continue

  • If your stomach can’t handle a possible drop

  • How to protect your new crop corn using old crop options

  • Basis contract on your radar with corn inverse

  • Buy some insurance for most of you

  • The funds & farmer are long now which is a risk

  • SA weather bigger risk than SA numbers

  • Don’t see this as big wheat report

  • Be prepared and be proactive

  • Grain charts below*

Listen to today’s audio below

Want to come up with a plan before the report or talk? Call or text us anytime:

(605)295-3100

CATTLE THOUGHTS

From our partner Lauren at Texas Hedge Risk Management:

We recommend getting hedges in place on cattle, whether that be a floor with options or LRP, or straight future hedges. The funds have an almost record large long position and could be looking to take profits. Feeders (march) hit their second price target of $268.50 area. Above this area, we have a third and final price objective of $273. Based on today's price action we believe that >$270 may not be guaranteed at the moment. April live cattle closed below their technical objective of $197.65.

In other news, imports of Mexican cattle are set to resume in a slow capacity on January 20th.There was also a rumor that hit the market today of a large packing plant closure. While this is just a rumor and most likely not true TODAY, it has been on the radar of many analysts. 

There are multiple ways to get your downside protected based on your risk tolerance. We are also looking at rolling up floors on LRP done previously in the marketing year. If there is any way that we can help, give us a call.

You can contact Lauren at (979)587-9252 or Jeremey at (605)295-3100

GRAIN CHARTS

March Corn 🌽

Nothing big to update here.

Golden zone is the support box if we correct.

Ideally we continue to hold the 200-day.

My bias remains higher unless we were to break the blue uptrend line.

Next target still $4.67

Jan Beans 🌱

Not much to update here either.

Bulls want to continue holding this support (red line) or there isn’t much preventing us from going to test those old lows.

Upside target for possible de-risk is still the green box if we get there.

Continuous Beans 🌱

Little different look here at the continuous chart.

This chart doesn’t look super friendly, rejected right off the trendline from September.

If the green line doesn’t hold, can’t rule out testing the bottom blue line.

Bulls want to break the downtrend.

Continuous Meal 🌱

As I mentioned the past several days not a great look here and has me slightly worried about beans.

Rejected right off the downtrend and the golden retracement zone.

Bulls need to break the downtrend.

March Wheat 🌾

Still think we have a possible bullish falling wedge, but we can still come down to the bottom of the wedge first. (Which would mean new lows again)

We have been battling that one simply line for 8 months now since last May.

Busting above would be a great win for the bulls.

Think its a matter of time before we eventually break out of the wedge.

Continuous Wheat 🌾

Different set up here.

Watching two areas.

The green support box. The green downward trend.

Bulls need to hold support and break the trend.

If this support gives out, next stop could be the black line.

KC Wheat 🌾

Need to hold the green box.

Need to bust the red downward trendline.


Want to Talk?

Our phones are open 24/7 for you guys if you ever need anything or want to discuss your operation.

(605) 295-3100

sfrost@dailymarketminute.com


Hedge Account

Interested in a hedge account? Use the link below to set up an account or shoot Jeremey a call at (605)295-3100.

LEARN MORE


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12/11/24

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12/5/24

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12/3/24

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11/26/24

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11/21/24

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11/19/24

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11/18/24

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11/15/24

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11/14/24

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11/13/24

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11/11/24

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11/8/24

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11/6/24

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11/1/24

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10/31/24

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10/30/24

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10/29/24

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10/25/24

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10/24/24

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10/23/24

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10/22/24

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10/21/24

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10/18/24

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10/17/24

OPTIMISTIC PRICE ACTION IN GRAINS

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10/16/24

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10/15/24

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10/14/24

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10/10/24

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10/9/24

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10/8/24

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10/7/24

FLOORS, RISKS, & POTENTIAL UPSIDE

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10/4/24

HEDGE PRESSURE

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10/3/24

GRAINS TAKE A STEP BACK

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10/2/24

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10/1/24

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9/30/24

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Next


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USDA OUT TOMORROW

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THE HISTORY OF THE JAN USDA & MORE