2 DAYS UNTIL USDA. BE PREPARED
AUDIO COMMENTARY
US dollar strength added some pressure
Getting hedges in place for cattle
Cattle thoughts & chart below*
Risk is that carryout doesn’t fall much as it’s priced in
Biggest corn risk going into the report
Options dirt cheap if you have grain in the bin
Cheap way to protect the corn rally & not sell too early if the rally decides to continue
If your stomach can’t handle a possible drop
How to protect your new crop corn using old crop options
Basis contract on your radar with corn inverse
Buy some insurance for most of you
The funds & farmer are long now which is a risk
SA weather bigger risk than SA numbers
Don’t see this as big wheat report
Be prepared and be proactive
Grain charts below*
Listen to today’s audio below
Want to come up with a plan before the report or talk? Call or text us anytime:
CATTLE THOUGHTS
From our partner Lauren at Texas Hedge Risk Management:
We recommend getting hedges in place on cattle, whether that be a floor with options or LRP, or straight future hedges. The funds have an almost record large long position and could be looking to take profits. Feeders (march) hit their second price target of $268.50 area. Above this area, we have a third and final price objective of $273. Based on today's price action we believe that >$270 may not be guaranteed at the moment. April live cattle closed below their technical objective of $197.65.
In other news, imports of Mexican cattle are set to resume in a slow capacity on January 20th.There was also a rumor that hit the market today of a large packing plant closure. While this is just a rumor and most likely not true TODAY, it has been on the radar of many analysts.
There are multiple ways to get your downside protected based on your risk tolerance. We are also looking at rolling up floors on LRP done previously in the marketing year. If there is any way that we can help, give us a call.
You can contact Lauren at (979)587-9252 or Jeremey at (605)295-3100
GRAIN CHARTS
March Corn 🌽
Nothing big to update here.
Golden zone is the support box if we correct.
Ideally we continue to hold the 200-day.
My bias remains higher unless we were to break the blue uptrend line.
Next target still $4.67
Jan Beans 🌱
Not much to update here either.
Bulls want to continue holding this support (red line) or there isn’t much preventing us from going to test those old lows.
Upside target for possible de-risk is still the green box if we get there.
Continuous Beans 🌱
Little different look here at the continuous chart.
This chart doesn’t look super friendly, rejected right off the trendline from September.
If the green line doesn’t hold, can’t rule out testing the bottom blue line.
Bulls want to break the downtrend.
Continuous Meal 🌱
As I mentioned the past several days not a great look here and has me slightly worried about beans.
Rejected right off the downtrend and the golden retracement zone.
Bulls need to break the downtrend.
March Wheat 🌾
Still think we have a possible bullish falling wedge, but we can still come down to the bottom of the wedge first. (Which would mean new lows again)
We have been battling that one simply line for 8 months now since last May.
Busting above would be a great win for the bulls.
Think its a matter of time before we eventually break out of the wedge.
Continuous Wheat 🌾
Different set up here.
Watching two areas.
The green support box. The green downward trend.
Bulls need to hold support and break the trend.
If this support gives out, next stop could be the black line.
KC Wheat 🌾
Need to hold the green box.
Need to bust the red downward trendline.
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Check Out Past Updates
1/7/25
THE HISTORY OF THE JAN USDA & MORE
1/6/25
MAJOR USDA REPORT FRIDAY
1/2/25
LONG TERM CORN UPTREND? JANUARY DROP OFF IN BEANS? LONG TERM WHEAT FACTORS
1/2/25
CATTLE HEDGE ALERT
12/31/24
MASSIVE DAY FOR GRAINS. FLOORS? 2025 SALES? GAME PLAN? CHART BREAKDOWNS
12/30/24
GRAINS FADE EARLY HIGHS
12/27/24
STILL LONG TERM UPSIDE POTENTIAL, BUT TAKE ADVANTAGE OF 6 MONTH CORN HIGH
12/26/24
CORN ABOVE 200-DAY MA. ARGY DRY. BEANS +44 CENTS OFF LOWS
12/23/24
CORN & BEANS TALE OF 2 STORIES. BEANS REJECT OLD SUPPORT
12/20/24
PERFECT BOUNCE IN CORN. SIMPLE BEAN BACKTEST BEFORE LOWER?
12/19/24
THE SOYBEAN PROBLEM. NEW WHEAT LOWS. CORN UPTREND
12/18/24
BEANS BREAK SUPPORT & OPEN FLOOD GATES
12/17/24
SINK OR SWIM TIME FOR SOYBEANS
12/16/24
SOYBEANS & WHEAT FIGHTING LOWS. WILL CORN DEMAND CONTINUE
12/13/24
POST USDA COOL OFF
12/12/24
CORN CORRECTION. WHY WE ALERTED SELL SIGNAL YESTERDAY
12/11/24
USDA PRICED IN? FAIR VALUE OF CORN? BEAN BREAKOUT?
12/11/24
CORN SELL SIGNAL
12/10/24
USDA BREAKDOWN
12/9/24
USDA TOMORROW
12/6/24
CORN TRYING TO BREAKOUT. MAKING MARKETING DECISIONS
12/5/24
OPTIMISTIC BOUNCE IN GRAINS
12/4/24
WHEAT UNDERVALUED? MOST RISK IN BEANS. HAVE A GAME PLAN
12/3/24
BEANS HOLDING DESPITE LACK OF BULLISH STORY
12/2/24
TRUMP & BRAZIL HURDLES
11/27/24
CORN SPREADS, CRUCIAL SPOT FOR BEANS, SEASONALITY SAYS BUY
11/26/24
TARIFF TALK PRESSURE
11/25/24
HOLIDAY TRADE, SEASONALS, TARGETS & DOWNSIDE RISKS
11/22/24
CORN TARGETS & CHINA CONCERNS
11/21/24
BEANS NEAR LOWS. CORN NEAR HIGHS. 2025 SALE THOUGHTS
11/19/24
WHAT’S NEXT FOR GRAINS
11/18/24
WHEAT LEADS THE GRAINS REBOUND
11/15/24
BIG BOUNCE, FUNDS LONG CORN, DOLLAR & DEMAND
11/14/24
3RD DAY OF GRAINS FALL OUT
11/13/24
GRAINS CONTINUE WEAKNESS & DOLLAR CONTINUES RALLY
11/12/24
ANOTHER POOR PERFORMANCE IN GRAINS
11/11/24
POOR ACTION IN GRAINS POST FRIENDLY USDA
11/8/24
USDA FRIENDLY BUT GRAINS WELL OFF HIGHS
11/6/24
GRAINS STORM BACK POST TRADE WAR FEAR
11/5/24
ALL ABOUT THE ELECTION & VIDEO CHART UDPATE
11/4/24
ELECTION TOMORROW
11/1/24
GRAINS WAITING ON NEWS
10/31/24
ELECTION & USDA NEXT WEEK
10/30/24
SEASONALS, CORN DEMAND, BRAZIL REAL & MORE
10/29/24
WHAT’S NEXT AFTER HARVEST?
10/25/24
POOR PRICE ACTION & SPREADS WEAKEN
10/24/24
BIG BUYERS WANT CORN?
10/23/24
6TH STRAIGHT DAY OF CORN SALES
10/22/24
STRONG DEMAND & TECHNICAL BUYING FOR GRAINS
10/21/24
SPREADS, BASIS CONTRACTS, STRONG CORN, BIG SALES
10/18/24
BEANS & WHEAT HAMMERED
10/17/24
OPTIMISTIC PRICE ACTION IN GRAINS
10/16/24
BEANS CONTINUE DOWNFALL. CORN & WHEAT FIND SUPPORT
10/15/24
MORE PAIN FOR GRAINS
10/14/24
GRAINS SMACKED. BEANS BREAK $10.00
10/10/24
USDA TOMORROW
10/9/24
MARKETING STYLES, USDA RISK, & FEED NEEDS
10/8/24
BEANS FALL APART
10/7/24
FLOORS, RISKS, & POTENTIAL UPSIDE
10/4/24
HEDGE PRESSURE
10/3/24
GRAINS TAKE A STEP BACK
10/2/24
CORN & WHEAT CONTINUE RUN
10/1/24
CORN & WHEAT POST MULTI-MONTH HIGHS
9/30/24