DECENT PRICE ACTION. BASIS CONTRACTS. ROLLING VS FUTURES. NOT FALLING FOR BIG AG TRAP
AUDIO COMMENTARY
Beans trading higher despite very bearish tour
Potential key reversals, but need follow through
(Technical charts & reversals below audio)*
If you know you have insurance payment coming, how to lock it in
Puking often signals bottoms. A rigged game
Rolling basis contracts vs re-owning with calls
Ways to outperform the market
Your own futures account vs elevators account
Reasons why I think we are close to lows
Basis contracts screw you in carry markets
Elevator does what’s right for them, not you
Not falling into Big Ag traps
Hopeful but plenty of downside risk
Wheat trying to buy acres
Seasonally make lows soon
They say buy heavy deliveries
Brazil is super dry, doesn’t matter yet
Some think this heat is heat is shaving some off US crops
Listen to today’s audio below
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CHARTS
Dec Corn 🌽
Almost a key reversal, but we didn’t post contract lows today. Chart looks decent, but still in an obvious clear downtrend.
First I want to see us take out that short term trendline.
Then resistance is at $4.03 and $4.09. Once we clear $4.09 the chart will look really good.
The bottom indicator for me still sits at $4.23 to $4.26
Nov Beans 🌱
3 green days in a row.
Looks like we might be trying to find a bottom here, finding support at that trade war resistance. BUT we are in a very clear downtrend still.
Once we break that May downtrend I’ll feel more confident.
But for me to be really confident, I need us over $10.42 which would mark our first higher high.
Still plenty of downside risk, as many are calling for sub $9.
Dec Wheat 🌾
Key reversal today.
We have seen this before. We absolutely need follow through.
If we get follow through then perhaps the bottom might be in. If not, then this key reversal doesn’t matter.
$5.10 is the implied downside move after we broke out of that 35 cent range (Blue Box).
To be confident the bottom is in, I’d like to see $5.80
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Check Out Past Updates
8/26/24
FIRST NOTICE DAY PRESSURE & CROP TOUR RECAP
8/23/24
CROP TOUR SHOWS MASSIVE BEAN YIELD
8/22/24
UGLY DAY FOR WHEAT & BEANS, STILL RISK, CROP TOURS, CAPTURING CARRY
8/21/24
CROP TOUR DAY 3. NOT HUGE MOVEMENT
8/20/24
CROP TOUR SO FAR & COMPARISON TO USDA
8/19/24
CROP TOUR BOUNCE
8/16/24
RISK REMAINS LOWER. MANAGE YOUR RISK
8/15/24
DEMAND, BIG US CROPS & BRAZIL DROUGHT
8/14/24
DEAD CAT BOUNCE
8/13/24
POST USDA SELL OFF
8/12/24
USDA REPORT: BEARISH BEANS. SMALLER CORN CARRYOUT & RECORD YIELDS
8/9/24
USDA REPORT MONDAY
8/7/24
HUGE USDA REPORT MONDAY
8/6/24
WHEAT UNDERVALUED? CORN YIELD? WHAT TO DO WITH GRAIN OFF COMBINE
8/5/24
GRAINS STRONG WHILE WORLD PANICS
8/2/24
GRAINS RALLY, YIELD ESTIMATES, CHINA STARTS TO BUY
8/1/24