WHEAT UNDERVALUED? MOST RISK IN BEANS. HAVE A GAME PLAN
AUDIO COMMENTARY
Wheat market posted new lows but bounced
Fundamentally feels wheat is undervalued
Russia is going to be selling less wheat
Ideas are the Brazil bean crop getting bigger
Political uncertainty: bio fuels, tariffs, & Trump
Seasonally we bounce but zero SA story
Still a ton of downside risk in soybeans
Beans have the most potential downside risk
Farmer selling probably slowed until January
What to do if you have to move in Jan-Feb-March
Putting together a game plan
Examples of using a hedge account
Corn still range bound (chart below)*
Wheat chart below*
Listen to today’s audio below
Want to talk or put together a game plan?
CHARTS
March Corn 🌽
No changes. Corn still range bound in this symmetrical triangle.
Waiting for a break above or below those blue line.
Which way we break will decide what direction we go.
Jan Beans 🌱
No changes here either. We continue to find support at these lows.
Have to be cautious here with beans.
Still desperately NEED to hold those lows.
The implied move if we break below is around -$1.00
To negate this, we need to bust that long term downward trend resistance.
March Wheat 🌾
We posted new lows but left a nice potential reversal doji candle.
If this level fails, we could very well go test that long term downward support.
I like wheat fundamentally long term. But that doesn’t mean we can’t go lower from here first.
To even consider if we have put in a bottom, we would need to close above $5.84
March KC 🌾
Trying to hold this bottom range just like Chicago wheat. If this level fails, next support could be that long term downward support.
To say the bottom is in, I would like to see us close above $5.80
Past Sell or Protection Signals
We recently incorporated these. Here are our past signals.
Oct 2nd: 🌾
Wheat sell signal at $6.12 target
Sep 30th: 🌽
Corn protection signal at $4.23-26
Sep 27th: 🌱
Soybean sell & protection signal at $10.65
Sep 13th: 🌾
Wheat sell signal at $5.98
May 22nd: 🌾
Wheat sell signal when wheat traded +$7.00
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