WHAT’S NEXT AFTER HARVEST?

Written By Sebastian Frost

AUDIO COMMENTARY

  • Harvest pressure is gone now

  • Winter wheat conditions 2nd worst ever

  • First time in 10 days with no corn sales

  • Market is building in a Trump win

  • Great moisture in Brazil. No issues

  • Brazil is all caught up on bean planting

  • Still massive risk in the bean market

  • Stocks to use ratio suggests lower beans

  • One potential Brazil positive factor

  • Spreads weakening. Not great

  • If you still have basis contracts

  • Risks for the corn market

  • What’s the risk the next 1-2 months?

  • Election will bring wild volatility

  • For those done harvesting vs have to sell

Listen to today’s audio below

Want to talk? (605)295-3100

CHARTS

Corn 🌽

I think we are just going to be range bound for now.

$4.00 and $4.26 are really the two levels to watch. Everything else in between is noise.

$4.00 is a must hold. If we break it, there is little support

Beans 🌱

Not a good look for beans. We broke that $9.68 support

Take a look at the next chart below to get a bigger picture view of beans.

$9.61 was the trade war resistance.

If we bust below, it opens the door to test those trade war ranges of $8.50 to $9.16

$8.50 is about the lowest we could possibly go.

To break out of the bear market territory, we would need two monthly closes above $10.75 (purple box)

*(NOTE: This chart shows front month contracts. So right now it is Nov beans, it will switch to Jan beans. Which can make the chart look friendlier in a carry as long as Jan beans stay above $9.61)

Here is a seasonal chart for beans.

We do NOT HAVE to follow this.. but it gives bulls a little hopium.

Still plenty of factors that could send us lower.. or higher.

Wheat 🌾

We got a nice bounce off the 61.8% retracement like I mentioned we could yesterday (Meaning we have gave back 61.8% of the recent rally).

So great spot to get a bounce.

We would need to break above $5.80 to consider saying we are done going down.

One day isn’t a trend.

Past Sell or Protection Signals

We recently incorporated these. Here are our past signals.

Oct 2nd: 🌾 

Wheat sell signal at $6.12 target

CLICK HERE TO VIEW
 

Sep 30th: 🌽 

Corn protection signal at $4.23-26

CLICK HERE TO VIEW
 

Sep 27th: 🌱 

Soybean sell & protection signal at $10.65

CLICK HERE TO VIEW
 

Sep 13th: 🌾 

Wheat sell signal at $5.98

CLICK HERE TO VIEW
 

May 22nd: 🌾 

Wheat sell signal when wheat traded +$7.00

CLICK HERE TO VIEW

Want to Talk?

Our phones are open 24/7 for you guys if you ever need anything or want to discuss your operation.

(605) 295-3100

sfrost@dailymarketminute.com

Hedge Account

Interested in a hedge account? Use the link below to set up an account or shoot Jeremey a call at (605)295-3100.

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Sebastian Frost
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GRAINS SUCCUMB TO OUTSIDE PRESSURE