IS GRAINS BIGGEST RISK WEAK CRUDE & DEFLATION?
AUDIO COMMENTARY
Old crop dominates direction here
Trump wants crude oil cheaper
Crude at multi year lows
Corn & crude not unison anymore
Think Canada & Mexico will agree
How this Trump presidency if different than last
The scarier scenario than tariffs
Tariffs could lead to more demand long term if deals get put in place
See the potential for wheat exports
What could happen for us to test the highs
Deflation & crude story is one of biggest risks
Don’t like locking in fuel needs yet. Trump wants cheap prices to get America behind him
Decent action past two days despite tariffs. Sell the rumor buy the fact?
Still think we will see opportunities
China has bought zero corn. What happens if we come to a trade agreement?
If you wanted to re-own the rally, do it now. Don’t wait until we rally again. Don’t chase.
Charts below*
Listen to today’s audio here
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CHARTS
May Corn 🌽
We are back above the 61.8% retracement of the entire rally. Good sign.
If this truly was the bottom for now, the upside target is the 50-61.8% retracement of this recent sell off.
Those targets are $4.80 to $4.89 (blue box)
The 50% at $4.80 just so happens to that big old support level that was the “must hold” level before we fell apart. So this would coincide with filling the air gap higher.
Dec Corn 🌽
Still hovering around the 61.8% retracement of the entire rally.
If this was the bottom, the upside targets are $4.60 to $4.65 (50-61.8% of the sell off) (targets will change if we put in a new low)
The 50% also happens to be that old must hold support level.
Very similar to May corn.
May Beans 🌱
Sitting right around the 61.8% retracement of the entire rally.
Getting a good reaction to this heavy support box. Need to hold here or next support is contract lows.
Still have a potential iverse head & shoulders pattern setting up.
Short term target is 50-61.8% of the sell off ($10.42 to $10.54)
Nov Beans 🌱
Very similar to May beans.
Above the 61.8% of the entire rally. Need to hold here.
May KC 🌾
Getting a good reaction to this support box.
Need to hold here or we will be trying to catch a falling knife.
Do not currently have my next target as we need to find a bottom first.
Continuous Chicago 🌾
Big support beneath us.
We have held it for over a year.
Would like to think we continue to do so.
May Wheat 🌾
Not much to update, finding support in this box.
Would like to see us continue to do so.
Do not currently have my next target.
Generic Cash Sales Tracker
Due to requests here is our generic cash sales trackers.
This does not include any hedge recommendations etc. Simply cash.
This is futures prices.
For old crop there is no percentages as we only recently started tracking our generic sell signals. Future new crop sales will have percentages as we continue to make sales.
This will be included at the bottom of every update.
Past Sell or Protection Signals
We recently incorporated these. Here are our past signals.
Feb 18th: 🌽 🌾
Old crop KC wheat & old crop corn signal.
Jan 23rd: 🌽 🌱
Corn & beans old crop sell signal.
CLICK HERE TO VIEW
Jan 15th: 🌽 🌱
Corn & beans hedge alert/sell signal.
Jan 2nd: 🐮
Cattle hedge alert at new all-time highs & target.
Dec 11th: 🌽
Corn sell signal at $4.51 200-day MA
CLICK HERE TO VIEW
Oct 2nd: 🌾
Wheat sell signal at $6.12 target
Sep 30th: 🌽
Corn protection signal at $4.23-26
Sep 27th: 🌱
Soybean sell & protection signal at $10.65
Sep 13th: 🌾
Wheat sell signal at $5.98
May 22nd: 🌾
Wheat sell signal when wheat traded +$7.00
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Check Out Past Updates
3/4/25
TRADE WAR BEGINS. 8TH DAY OF PAIN FOR GRAINS
3/3/25
TARIFFS ON TOMORROW. BUY SIGNAL
3/3/25
BUY SIGNAL
2/28/25
WHEN WILL THE BLEEDING STOP?
2/27/25
CORN AT CRITICAL SPOT. USDA ACRE REPORT. WAY TOO EARLY DROUGHT TALK
2/26/25
HISTORY SUGGESTS CORN TOP ISN’T IN? ACRE OUTLOOK TOMORROW
2/25/25
POSITIVE CLOSE. WHAT TO KNOW ABOUT USDA OUTLOOK
2/24/25
USDA OUTLOOK, FIRST NOTICE DAY & BRAZIL
2/21/25
WHAT TO EXPECT MOVING FORWARD IN GRAINS
2/20/25
FIRST NOTICE DAY CONCERNS. MASSIVE CORN ACRES OR NOT?
2/19/25
HOW TIGHT IS THE CORN SITUATION?
2/18/25
MORE DETAILS ON TODAYS SELL SIGNAL
2/18/25
OLD CROP KC WHEAT & CORN SELL SIGNAL
2/14/25
WHEAT BREAKING OUT ON WEATHER RISK. TECHNICALS & FUNDAMENTALS
2/12/25
GLOBAL GRAIN SITUATION, ACRE TALK, CHARTS & MORE
2/11/25
USDA: NOT A BEARISH REPORT. DISAPPOINTING PRICE ACTION
2/10/25
USDA TOMORROW. LONG TERM PATH FOR SUB 10% CORN STOCKS TO USE?
2/7/25
WHY WOULD THE FUNDS EXIT THEIR LONGS?
2/6/25
WHEAT FINALLY CATCHING A BID
2/5/25
COMPLETE THOUGHTS ON MARKETS: BACK & FORTH DISCUSSION
2/4/25
STRONG JANUARY LEAD TO STRONG YEAR? TARIFFS, CHARTS & MORE
2/3/25
TARIFFS PUSHED BACK
1/31/25
TARIFF NEWS ALL OVER THE PLACE. ARE YOU PREPARED FOR POSSIBILITIES?
1/30/25
WHEAT BULL ARGUMENT. TRUMP ADDS TARIFFS
1/29/25
CORN APPROACHES $5.00
1/28/25
TARIFFS, CORN FUNDS, SOUTH AMERICA & MORE
1/27/25
HEALTHY CORRECTION WE TALKED ABOUT & TARIFF NEWS
1/24/25
GRAINS DUE FOR SHORT TERM CORRECTION?
1/23/25
OUR ENTIRE NEW CROP SALES THOUGHTS & OLD CROP SELL SIGNAL
1/22/25
GRAINS TAKE A BREATHER. IS CORN IN A BULL OR BEAR MARKET?
1/21/25
HUGE DAY IN GRAINS. WHAT TO DO WITH OLD CROP VS NEW CROP
Read More
1/20/25
VIDEO CHART UPDATE
1/17/25
TRUMP, CHINA, ARGY & USING THE SPREADS INVERSE
1/16/25
OLD CROP LEADS US LOWER. MARKETING THOUGHTS
1/15/25
SIGNAL & HEDGE ALERT QUESTIONS EXPLAINED. IS $6 CORN EVEN POSSIBLE?
1/14/25
MORE DETAILS ON TODAYS HEDGE ALERT & SELL SIGNAL
1/14/25
CORN & SOYBEANS HEDGE ALERT/SELL SIGNAL
1/13/25
USDA GAME CHANGER OR NOT?
1/10/25
BULLISH USDA FOR CORN & BEANS
1/9/25
USDA OUT TOMORROW
1/8/25
2 DAYS UNTIL USDA. BE PREPARED
1/7/25
THE HISTORY OF THE JAN USDA & MORE
1/6/25
MAJOR USDA REPORT FRIDAY
Read More
1/3/25
UGLY DAY ACROSS THE GRAINS
1/2/25
LONG TERM CORN UPTREND? JANUARY DROP OFF IN BEANS? LONG TERM WHEAT FACTORS
1/2/25
CATTLE HEDGE ALERT
12/31/24
MASSIVE DAY FOR GRAINS. FLOORS? 2025 SALES? GAME PLAN? CHART BREAKDOWNS
12/30/24
GRAINS FADE EARLY HIGHS
12/27/24
STILL LONG TERM UPSIDE POTENTIAL, BUT TAKE ADVANTAGE OF 6 MONTH CORN HIGH
12/26/24
CORN ABOVE 200-DAY MA. ARGY DRY. BEANS +44 CENTS OFF LOWS
12/23/24
CORN & BEANS TALE OF 2 STORIES. BEANS REJECT OLD SUPPORT
12/20/24
PERFECT BOUNCE IN CORN. SIMPLE BEAN BACKTEST BEFORE LOWER?
12/19/24
THE SOYBEAN PROBLEM. NEW WHEAT LOWS. CORN UPTREND
12/18/24
BEANS BREAK SUPPORT & OPEN FLOOD GATES
12/17/24
SINK OR SWIM TIME FOR SOYBEANS
12/16/24
SOYBEANS & WHEAT FIGHTING LOWS. WILL CORN DEMAND CONTINUE
12/13/24
POST USDA COOL OFF
12/12/24
CORN CORRECTION. WHY WE ALERTED SELL SIGNAL YESTERDAY
12/11/24
USDA PRICED IN? FAIR VALUE OF CORN? BEAN BREAKOUT?
12/11/24
CORN SELL SIGNAL
12/10/24
USDA BREAKDOWN
12/9/24
USDA TOMORROW
12/6/24
CORN TRYING TO BREAKOUT. MAKING MARKETING DECISIONS
12/5/24
OPTIMISTIC BOUNCE IN GRAINS
12/4/24
WHEAT UNDERVALUED? MOST RISK IN BEANS. HAVE A GAME PLAN
12/3/24
BEANS HOLDING DESPITE LACK OF BULLISH STORY
12/2/24
TRUMP & BRAZIL HURDLES
11/27/24