OLD CROP LEADS US LOWER. MARKETING THOUGHTS
AUDIO COMMENTARY
Entire market takes it on the chin
Not a surprise in the grains, hence the signal 2 days ago
Moisture in Argy forecasts
Markets closed on Monday. Trump in Tuesday
Where my bias lays short vs long term
India creating more bean oil competition
Soybean meal chart looks ugly
Marketing thoughts
Puts are still not the worst play for some of you
Old crop led us lower on the down day. Example of why to protect what is overvalued
Not giving that advantage to big ag
Visual of Feb puts from Tuesday below*
Charts below*
Listen to todayโs audio below
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(605)295-3100
VISUAL OF FEB PUTS
If you grabbed the Feb $10.50 bean puts you should have a floor of around $10.37, currently beans are trading at $10.19 and -45 cents off the recent highs.
If you grabbed the Feb $4.75 corn puts, you should have a floor of around $4.70
CHARTS
March Corn ๐ฝ
Corn chart still looks pretty good.
If we correct, I am looking for a bounce in the green box. Altough we could even fall all the way down to $4.51 and the breakout point of the asending triangle and still be completely fine from a technical standpoint.
If we broke below that blue then Iโd be concerned. Until then my bias does lean higher.
Next target if the rally resumes is still $4.85
March Beans ๐ฑ
Soybeans need a bounce here. Sitting right in the golden zone.
If we do not bounce here we are likely going to test that big support level of $9.89
That level is the must hold level. As there is virtually zero support beneath that until the $9.40 lows.
If the rally were to continue, the next possible target would be the $10.80 range. But as I have said several times, I am hesitant to think weโll be able to climb that high.
Meal ๐ฑ
Meal is below the golden zone retracement of the recent rally.
Next stop looks like those old lows.
Continuous Wheat ๐พ
I included continuous as it gives a good picture of the wheat market.
Still need to break that green line.
Still need to hold that green support box.
Everything in between is simply noise.
Which ever breaks first will give us the next direction.
KC Wheat ๐พ
Just like Chicago, two simply spots to watch.
The downward trend and the green support box.
Which ever gives out first will give us our next move.
MPLS Wheat ๐พ
I had some requests to include MPLS. Sorry for the weird chart as my trading platform doesnโt have MPLS.
Getting pretty close to a big support level.
Just like KC and Chicago, waiting to see if the downward trend or the support level gives out first.
The red lines are good examples of what happens when support gives out. It often triggers the flood gates lower.
Bulls want a bounce soon.
Past Sell & Protection Signals
We recently incorporated these. Here are our past signals.
Jan 15th: ๐ฝ ๐ฑ
Corn & beans hedge alert/sell signal.
Jan 2nd: ๐ฎ
Cattle hedge alert at new all-time highs & target.
CLICK HERE TO VIEW
Dec 11: ๐ฝ
Corn sell signal at $4.51 200-day MA
Oct 2nd: ๐พ
Wheat sell signal at $6.12 target
Sep 30th: ๐ฝ
Corn protection signal at $4.23-26
Sep 27th: ๐ฑ
Soybean sell & protection signal at $10.65
Sep 13th: ๐พ
Wheat sell signal at $5.98
May 22nd: ๐พ
Wheat sell signal when wheat traded +$7.00
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Check Out Past Updates
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1/14/25
MORE DETAILS ON TODAYS HEDGE ALERT & SELL SIGNAL
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CORN & SOYBEANS HEDGE ALERT/SELL SIGNAL
1/13/25
USDA GAME CHANGER OR NOT?
1/10/25
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1/9/25
USDA OUT TOMORROW
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2 DAYS UNTIL USDA. BE PREPARED
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MAJOR USDA REPORT FRIDAY
1/2/25
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12/31/24
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12/30/24
GRAINS FADE EARLY HIGHS
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STILL LONG TERM UPSIDE POTENTIAL, BUT TAKE ADVANTAGE OF 6 MONTH CORN HIGH
12/26/24
CORN ABOVE 200-DAY MA. ARGY DRY. BEANS +44 CENTS OFF LOWS
12/23/24
CORN & BEANS TALE OF 2 STORIES. BEANS REJECT OLD SUPPORT
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12/20/24
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12/19/24
THE SOYBEAN PROBLEM. NEW WHEAT LOWS. CORN UPTREND
12/18/24
BEANS BREAK SUPPORT & OPEN FLOOD GATES
12/17/24
SINK OR SWIM TIME FOR SOYBEANS
12/16/24
SOYBEANS & WHEAT FIGHTING LOWS. WILL CORN DEMAND CONTINUE
12/13/24
POST USDA COOL OFF
12/12/24
CORN CORRECTION. WHY WE ALERTED SELL SIGNAL YESTERDAY
12/11/24
USDA PRICED IN? FAIR VALUE OF CORN? BEAN BREAKOUT?
12/11/24
CORN SELL SIGNAL
12/10/24
USDA BREAKDOWN
12/9/24
USDA TOMORROW
12/6/24
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12/5/24
OPTIMISTIC BOUNCE IN GRAINS
12/4/24
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12/3/24
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12/2/24
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11/27/24
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11/26/24
TARIFF TALK PRESSURE
11/25/24
HOLIDAY TRADE, SEASONALS, TARGETS & DOWNSIDE RISKS
11/22/24
CORN TARGETS & CHINA CONCERNS
11/21/24
BEANS NEAR LOWS. CORN NEAR HIGHS. 2025 SALE THOUGHTS
11/19/24
WHATโS NEXT FOR GRAINS
11/18/24
WHEAT LEADS THE GRAINS REBOUND
11/15/24
BIG BOUNCE, FUNDS LONG CORN, DOLLAR & DEMAND
11/14/24
3RD DAY OF GRAINS FALL OUT
11/13/24
GRAINS CONTINUE WEAKNESS & DOLLAR CONTINUES RALLY
11/12/24
ANOTHER POOR PERFORMANCE IN GRAINS
11/11/24
POOR ACTION IN GRAINS POST FRIENDLY USDA
11/8/24
USDA FRIENDLY BUT GRAINS WELL OFF HIGHS
11/6/24
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ALL ABOUT THE ELECTION & VIDEO CHART UDPATE
11/4/24
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11/1/24
GRAINS WAITING ON NEWS
10/31/24
ELECTION & USDA NEXT WEEK
10/30/24
SEASONALS, CORN DEMAND, BRAZIL REAL & MORE
10/29/24
WHATโS NEXT AFTER HARVEST?
10/25/24
POOR PRICE ACTION & SPREADS WEAKEN
10/24/24
BIG BUYERS WANT CORN?
10/23/24
6TH STRAIGHT DAY OF CORN SALES
10/22/24
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10/21/24
SPREADS, BASIS CONTRACTS, STRONG CORN, BIG SALES
10/18/24
BEANS & WHEAT HAMMERED
10/17/24
OPTIMISTIC PRICE ACTION IN GRAINS
10/16/24
BEANS CONTINUE DOWNFALL. CORN & WHEAT FIND SUPPORT
10/15/24
MORE PAIN FOR GRAINS
10/14/24
GRAINS SMACKED. BEANS BREAK $10.00
10/10/24
USDA TOMORROW
10/9/24
MARKETING STYLES, USDA RISK, & FEED NEEDS
10/8/24
BEANS FALL APART
10/7/24
FLOORS, RISKS, & POTENTIAL UPSIDE
10/4/24
HEDGE PRESSURE
10/3/24
GRAINS TAKE A STEP BACK
10/2/24
CORN & WHEAT CONTINUE RUN
10/1/24
CORN & WHEAT POST MULTI-MONTH HIGHS
9/30/24